Post by account_disabled on Feb 20, 2024 5:52:28 GMT -5
Bogotá — In 2024, the world economy will face the challenge of overcoming major challenges such as the possible recession in the United States, cuts in interest rates and control of inflation.
For this reason, Bloomberg Línea spoke with the director of global market strategy at Natixis Investment Managers , Mabrouk Chetouane , who assured that the presidential elections in the US will be very important for the economies and markets of the world.
He warns that 2024 faces several risks, and one of them is “ The threat of a second inflationary wave.” ”, and Chetouane adds that headline inflation should remain below core inflation (excluding the volatile component) for at least the first half of 2024 in most developed countries.
In addition, he assured that new Asia Mobile Number List inflation could affect companies, both in their sales and profits. However, he adds that “There remains a high level of volatility due to the war between Russia and Ukraine,” adding that “it is a conflict with no winners or losers because we are all losing.
Risks to control inflationRegarding the risks that could make it difficult to reduce inflation, he explains that persistent imbalances in labor markets are likely to maintain upward pressure on wage growth and, ultimately, on core inflation.
However, he adds that the United States is distinguished from the rest of the developed world by its inflationary trajectory. The significant improvement in productivity increases will contain inflationary pressure on salaries and, at the same time, sustain business margins.
At that point he summarizes that “ The election of the next president of the United States is absolutely crucial because it may or may not trigger a new trigger for the capital markets.
Despite the armed conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, Chetouane does not foresee an impact on oil prices, a fact that could have effects on the Colombian economy and this is because “the large producers are not directly in the conflict, the United States United States, Saudi Arabia and Iran. They have productions of 13 million, 9 million and 3 million respectively, there may have been an initial impact, but it normalized relatively quickly.
Finally, he says that the uncertainty over the elections in the United States will have a strong impact towards the third and fourth quarters of the year. However, he says that what matters most now is “monitoring variables such as inflation and interest rates.
Investors are not on board with the idea of a change in direction of monetary policy, especially in the United States. Chetouane explains that today the markets foresee 6 interest rate cuts until 2024.
Along these lines, he explains that, depending on the speed of deceleration of the US economy, the Fed could begin to adjust interest rates starting in the summer, for a total of 3 rate cuts of 25 basis points between now and 2024.
For this reason, Bloomberg Línea spoke with the director of global market strategy at Natixis Investment Managers , Mabrouk Chetouane , who assured that the presidential elections in the US will be very important for the economies and markets of the world.
He warns that 2024 faces several risks, and one of them is “ The threat of a second inflationary wave.” ”, and Chetouane adds that headline inflation should remain below core inflation (excluding the volatile component) for at least the first half of 2024 in most developed countries.
In addition, he assured that new Asia Mobile Number List inflation could affect companies, both in their sales and profits. However, he adds that “There remains a high level of volatility due to the war between Russia and Ukraine,” adding that “it is a conflict with no winners or losers because we are all losing.
Risks to control inflationRegarding the risks that could make it difficult to reduce inflation, he explains that persistent imbalances in labor markets are likely to maintain upward pressure on wage growth and, ultimately, on core inflation.
However, he adds that the United States is distinguished from the rest of the developed world by its inflationary trajectory. The significant improvement in productivity increases will contain inflationary pressure on salaries and, at the same time, sustain business margins.
At that point he summarizes that “ The election of the next president of the United States is absolutely crucial because it may or may not trigger a new trigger for the capital markets.
Despite the armed conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, Chetouane does not foresee an impact on oil prices, a fact that could have effects on the Colombian economy and this is because “the large producers are not directly in the conflict, the United States United States, Saudi Arabia and Iran. They have productions of 13 million, 9 million and 3 million respectively, there may have been an initial impact, but it normalized relatively quickly.
Finally, he says that the uncertainty over the elections in the United States will have a strong impact towards the third and fourth quarters of the year. However, he says that what matters most now is “monitoring variables such as inflation and interest rates.
Investors are not on board with the idea of a change in direction of monetary policy, especially in the United States. Chetouane explains that today the markets foresee 6 interest rate cuts until 2024.
Along these lines, he explains that, depending on the speed of deceleration of the US economy, the Fed could begin to adjust interest rates starting in the summer, for a total of 3 rate cuts of 25 basis points between now and 2024.